Even as superintendents focus on the issues that have been the pandemic’s lingering impacts, they may be “sleepwalking into a fiscal buzzsaw” when it comes to enrollment-related funding.
More specifically, Dale Chu, a senior research fellow at the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, questions why staffing levels are rising in districts where student enrollment has dipped.
“Enrollment is falling, achievement has taken a nose dive—especially among our most marginalized students—and yet, K12 staffing keeps growing,” he says. “Something’s gotta give, and fast. If districts don’t start making tough choices now, they’ll be forced into them by a reality they won’t be able to ignore.”
Some of those tough choices might include letting go of newer staff members and relying on your strong, senior teaching staff, Marguerite Roza, a research professor and Director of Georgetown University’s Edunomics Lab, said in a webinar last week.
For instance, she noted that some districts are offering early retirement incentives to senior teachers to mitigate budget deficits. Roza said this is financially inefficient.
“We’re paying our staff not to work,” she said. “We’re taking some of our people who already get a higher salary, then we’re paying them more so that they don’t work. Other industries don’t do that as often.”
Labor costs account for the vast majority of districts’ budgets, she adds. If you’re looking to make budget cuts, labor must be addressed. The best-case scenario is you prioritize a smaller, stronger workforce by retaining your best teachers.
But unfortunately, the nationwide enrollment decline will continue, said Roza. Considering schools are employing more staff than ever, labor cuts are inevitable.
“In many districts, the relief funds masked the financial impacts of declining enrollment, but they’re gone,” said Roza. “We have to face the music.”
Now that we’re more than one month into President Donald Trump’s second term, let’s briefly recap some other major federal policy updates that may impact the upcoming school year. Knowing how these policy changes and appointments might impact K12 is important as schools plan for 2025-26.
DEI programming
One of the more recent challenges posed to school districts was the “Dear Colleague Letter” issued by the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights ordering leaders to reevaluate diversity, equity and inclusion programming within the 14-day deadline.
While some school districts publicly voiced their complaints about the new law, leaders need guidance because the OCR will continue to enforce it, says Chu.
“Although the feds just walked back some of its language, schools should still take the Dear Colleague Letter seriously, because Washington certainly is,” he says. “The days of using DEI as a blank check for race-conscious policies are over.”
He recommends that district leaders perform audits to ensure their programs are legally defensible. Those who don’t are “rolling the dice on a federal investigation,” he says.
Eliminating the Department of Education
A bill that would allow for dismantling the Education Department would require 60 votes in the Senate, which means seven Democrats would have to jump the fence, which is unlikely. So far, Senate Democrats have shown no interest in supporting such a move.
Chu says Trump’s vow to shut down the agency was more of a campaign slogan than a serious governing blueprint.
“That said, this administration seems to view federal law as more of a suggestion than something to be followed to the letter,” he explains. “If you can’t kill the department outright, why not neuter it? That’s the playbook we’re seeing unfold.”
More from DA: This new FAQ answers your questions about DEI guidance
Trump hasn’t focused much on education policy, Chu adds. Instead, his key education appointments—Linda McMahon (education secretary), Penny Schwinn (deputy secretary of education) and Kirsten Baesler (assistant secretary for Elementary and Secretary Education)—will have their hands full.
“In the meantime, we’ve seen significant cuts to the Institution of Education Sciences and NAEP Long-Term Trend Assessment, signaling that when this administration does engage in K12, it won’t be business as usual,” he says.
