"We can predict year-long suspension rates in just the first 21 days of school. That's information that we needed to know. And now we do,” says Jason Okonofua, assistant professor of psychology at UC Berkeley and the study's principal investigator. Zeroing in on middle schools, the researchers found:

Daily punishment rates jump in through the fall, drop in the days before major vacations and rise again rapidly when classes resume.
At schools where there are wide racial disparities in discipline referrals or suspensions early in the year, discipline rates for Black students increase faster throughout the semester.
By November, the Black student discipline rate is 10 times higher than at the beginning of the year. Compared to white students, it's 50 times higher.

One of the researchers’ goals is to reorient the collection of student discipline data that has long been centered solely around year-end reports for state and federal regulators. While that process can help educators and policymakers examine how discipline varies in severity among schools and subgroups, “it fails to capture the day-to-day realities at school,” the study says.

Instant Insights /

School discipline problems are predictable. Here is how to disrupt the forecast.

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