Texas public schools shrank by nearly 76,000 students this year. Where did they go?
The enrollment decline is the largest single-year change Texas has seen in years, according to Texas Education Agency data and an analysis by Texas 2036. It’s the first decline since the 2020-21 school year, when more than 122,000 students left at the height of the pandemic.
Hispanic students represent 81% of the total student decline, signaling a demographic shift that could reshape school district funding and resources, according to Texas 2036.
During a state public education committee meeting in Austin on Monday, TEA Commissioner Mike Morath said the direct cause of the decline is unknown.
“We are down students,” Morath said. “These are somewhat more accelerated than statewide demographic trends indicated. We cannot tell you the precise cause of this. We just know that it has occurred.”
Meanwhile, the state launched Texas Education Freedom Accounts this year, a voucher program that helps parents pay for approved education-related expenses, including private school tuition and fees, online courses and textbooks.
The program set a record for the largest school choice launch, receiving more than 274,000 applications during its initial rollout period, according to the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.
California public schools are experiencing a similar issue. The California Department of Education reported a decline of nearly 75,000 students this school year, according to ABC7. The drop is seven times larger than state officials initially projected.
In Florida, student enrollment has declined nearly 2%, or nearly 53,7000, over the past six years, according to Tallahassee Reports. The issue is forcing many districts to close or consolidate schools amid budget pressures.
Pinellas County Schools, which lost nearly 17% of its students over the six-year period, has already approved multiple closures and consolidations, citing long-term declines, according to FOX 13 News.
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While school choice is a factor in enrollment declines in participating states, declining birth rates are the primary reason schools are losing students, Marguerite Roza, director of Georgetown University’s Edunomics Lab, recently told District Administration.
Leaders are transitioning from a period of federal funding surpluses to a systemic contraction that Roza calls the “big shrink.”
“Because of this birth rate piece, any additional choice will exacerbate what’s already a very difficult trend for school districts,” Roza says. “Even one incremental student leaving is accelerating our decline.”
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